Estimate how much your car could be worth in 1, 3, 5 or 10 years. Use UK depreciation curves, mileage adjustments, age, fuel type and ownership timing to understand the true cost of buying, financing or selling a vehicle.
Depreciation is usually the largest hidden cost of owning a car, often bigger than servicing, tyres or insurance.
A car’s value over time is shaped by depreciation: the difference between the price paid and the price the car could realistically achieve when sold, part‑exchanged or valued for finance. In the UK, a new car normally loses the most value in the first year, then the decline continues more gradually across years two, three and beyond. Auto Trader’s depreciation guidance explains that new cars can commonly lose 20% to 30% in the first year and then around 15% for the next couple of years, often adding up to 50% or more over three years.
This calculator does not pretend to know the exact value of every vehicle registration. Instead, it gives a practical forecast using depreciation curves by vehicle segment and mileage. That makes it useful when you want to answer questions such as: “how much will my car be worth in three years?”, “is this PCP balloon value realistic?”, “should I sell now or wait another year?”, and “which of two cars will cost less in depreciation?”
The result should be treated as a planning estimate rather than a formal valuation. Real prices depend on condition, MOT history, service records, accident history, colour, trim, optional equipment, local demand, manufacturer discounts and the number of similar cars for sale. Before buying or selling, compare the calculator result with live dealer adverts, trade‑in offers and professional valuation tools such as CAP HPI, Auto Trader, Motorway or WeBuyAnyCar.
Use the forecast tab for one car, the segment tab to compare vehicle classes, or the comparison tab to test two purchases side by side.
Forecasts are indicative only. Check live market values before buying, selling or signing finance paperwork.
These guide ranges help explain why two cars bought for the same price can have very different ownership costs.
After three years, small city cars can be cheap to run but may suffer if demand is limited or safety/technology feels dated.
Popular but high supply. A desirable trim, petrol or hybrid engine and good colour can improve resale value.
Stable mainstream demand. Strong brands, automatic gearboxes and efficient engines help values stay competitive.
Strong family demand supports values, although diesel SUVs face more pressure in cities with clean-air schemes.
Premium image helps, but high list prices and fleet supply can create heavy cash depreciation in the first three years.
Used EV values vary widely. Range, battery warranty, charging speed, manufacturer discounts and brand trust all matter.
Follow these steps to get a realistic estimate of your car’s future value.
Use the new list price, the amount you paid, or the current market value if the car is already used.
Choose the closest category. A sports car, SUV and city car will usually follow different depreciation curves.
Higher mileage normally increases depreciation. Low mileage may support the price, but only with good condition.
Use the forecast table as a guide, then check live adverts and trade valuations before making a decision.
Depreciation is not random. UK buyers consistently reward some features and discount others.
These examples show why the “cheapest monthly payment” is not always the cheapest car to own.
| Example | Starting Price | Estimated Value After 3 Years | Approx Depreciation Cost | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £22,000 supermini | £22,000 | £12,300–£13,200 | £8,800–£9,700 | Cheap to buy, but high supply can mean ordinary depreciation unless it is a desirable trim. |
| £35,000 SUV | £35,000 | £19,000–£22,500 | £12,500–£16,000 | Strong demand helps residual value, but the cash loss can still be bigger because the starting price is higher. |
| £45,000 executive car | £45,000 | £22,000–£29,000 | £16,000–£23,000 | Premium models may retain a good percentage but still lose a large amount in pounds. |
| £42,000 electric car | £42,000 | £16,000–£25,000 | £17,000–£26,000 | Residuals depend heavily on range, battery health, charging speed and new-car discounting. |
| £32,000 sports car | £32,000 | £20,000–£24,000 | £8,000–£12,000 | Limited supply and enthusiast demand can support values, especially for manual or special editions. |
Timing can make a big difference to your total cost of ownership.
Buying new gives you the exact specification, full warranty and the latest safety technology, but you normally absorb the steepest depreciation. It can still make sense if you keep the car for a long time, receive a strong discount, use company benefits, or need a new EV through salary sacrifice. For short ownership periods, depreciation can be expensive because the first owner usually pays for the largest drop.
A one- to two-year-old car is often a strong compromise. The first owner has taken part of the initial loss, yet the car may still have modern technology, warranty cover and low mileage. Nearly new cars are especially attractive when manufacturers or fleets have supplied many similar vehicles to the market, pushing used prices down.
The three- to five-year range is popular because depreciation slows while the car is still modern enough for everyday use. However, repair risk, tyres, brakes, MOT work and extended warranty costs become more relevant. The calculator can show slower value loss at this stage, but you should add maintenance costs to get a full ownership picture.
Some cars face value cliffs at warranty expiry, 60,000 miles, 100,000 miles, battery warranty milestones or model replacement dates. Selling shortly before these psychological barriers can sometimes achieve a better price than waiting until the market marks the car down.
Future value is not only about resale — it also affects monthly payments and risk.
In a PCP agreement, the guaranteed future value is the lender’s estimate of what the car will be worth at the end. If real market value is above the balloon, you may have equity. If it is below, you can usually hand the car back subject to mileage and condition rules.
Lease companies price depreciation into the monthly rental. A car with stronger residual value can be cheaper to lease even if its list price is higher, because the funder expects to recover more money at disposal.
If a car is written off, your insurer usually pays market value, not the original invoice price. GAP insurance may cover the difference between the insurer settlement and outstanding finance or original invoice, but check exclusions carefully.
Use this quick checklist before choosing a new or used car.
| Check | Why It Matters | Depreciation Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Brand and model reputation | Reliable, desirable brands attract more used buyers. | Can protect value |
| Discount from list price | A big new-car discount can reduce your effective depreciation. | Can help if you buy well |
| Fuel type | Diesel, petrol, hybrid and EV demand varies by region and buyer type. | Model-specific |
| Mileage allowance | PCP and lease excess mileage charges can be expensive. | Can increase cost |
| Service plan and warranty | Buyers pay more for documented maintenance and remaining warranty. | Can protect value |
| Colour and trim | Mainstream colours and desirable trims have wider appeal. | Can improve resale |
| Upcoming model replacement | Old versions often fall when a new shape arrives. | Can reduce value |
| Battery range and charging speed | For EVs, older short-range cars can be marked down heavily. | High risk for some EVs |
Use these related pages to build a complete picture of ownership cost.
Answers to the most common UK questions about future car value, depreciation and resale timing.